Louisville Football 2025 Record Prediction
Written by Will Wigginton on 8/14/25
Football is (kind of) back. The Louisville football program has concluded its open practices and is now over halfway finished with its fall camp. Intel on players and position groups from those who have attended and analyzed these practices has led to hot takes being thrown around by many in the fanbase. We’ll find out whether or not these preliminary takeaways–positive or negative–are true soon enough. I have my own perception of how the team and its individual players will perform based on historical data and performances in the spring and summer, so it’s time for me to predict our record on a game-to-game basis for the 2025 campaign.
Game 1: Eastern Kentucky vs. Louisville
In 2024, The Eastern Kentucky Colonels finished 8-5 while ironically having a negative scoring margin. Head Coach Walt Wells led EKU to the FCS College Football Playoff, yet were ultimately defeated in the first round by Villanova. The key to success for EKU over the 2025 season is to lean on their coaching and roster continuity; however, this won’t mean anything against a Power 4 team on the road.
Score Prediction: Louisville 63, Eastern Kentucky 3
Game 2: James Madison vs. Louisville
Louisville should’ve never scheduled this game. James Madison is too good to be considered a buy game, but they don’t have a strong enough reputation for a loss to them at home to be perceived as anything but an utter disaster. JMU, coming off a 9-4 season, is picked to finish first in the Sun Belt, and even received 9 votes in the preseason AP poll.
JMU’s main threat to UofL will come on the offensive side, in which the Dukes retained quarterback Alonza Barnett III, and running back George Pettaway. Barnett threw for 2,600 yards, 26 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions, making him an efficient player under center who can pick apart an unprepared defense (looking at you, Ron English). Barnett is thankfully not a running quarterback, so Louisville’s defense will likely perform better than average. In the backfield, Pettaway ran for 980 yards last season on 6 yards per carry. Expect him to be the main focus for Louisville’s defensive plan. Louisville will win this game, but fans’ butts will be clenched.
Score Prediction: Louisville 34, James Madison 17
Game 3: Bowling Green vs Louisville
In the offseason, Bowling Green lost Harold Fannin Jr. and Head Coach Scot Loeffler. Replacing Loeffler comes Hall of Fame running back Eddie George as the new head coach. Hopefully Eddie can eventually instill a productive product at Bowling Green, but it won’t happen this year. Louisville should win fairly comfortably.
Score Prediction: Louisville 49, Bowling Green 17
Game 4: Louisville vs. Pittsburgh
Games against Pittsburgh are always underrated, but typically don’t go well for the Cards on the road. Pitt started last season 7-0 before falling off a cliff because of injuries and inconsistency, finishing the season 7-6 with an embarrassing bowl loss to Toledo. Returning quarterback Eli Holstein and running back Desmond Reid will be the best offensive players on this team, while it will likely be a community effort on defense, but Pitt does return Kyle Louis (7 sacks in 2024) in the front seven.
Everyone knows what happened at Pitt in 2023. Everything that could’ve gone wrong did go wrong, whether it came in the form of injuries, inexcusable turnovers, coaching mistakes, etc. Like Stanford last season, it was an all-systems failure by the coaching staff and players. Louisville should win this game, and they will, but the bad juju of playing at Acrisure Stadium (Heinz Field) and Pitt’s overall toughness will make this game a battle.
Score Prediction: Louisville 24, Pittsburgh 20
Game 5: Virginia vs. Louisville
The Virginia Cavaliers under Tony Elliott have been extremely disappointing, but they give the Cards a battle just about every year. In 2022, Scott Satterfield was coaching for his job, as the Cards overcame UVA on the road. In 2023, it took a 4th quarter comeback to outlast the Anthony Colandrea-led Cavs on the night of the failed glow game and horrific injury to UVA Wide Receiver, Perris Jones. In 2024, the situation was reversed, as Louisville had to stave off a late comeback from Virginia. Thanks to late-game heroics from Tyler Shough, Jamari Johnson, and the Louisville defense, they were able to narrowly escape from another reputation-damaging loss.
While Tony Elliott’s teams at Virginia have had poor overall records, they’ve been feisty. Colandrea has transferred to UNLV under first-year Coach Dan Mullen, but the Cavs do return over 61% of their team production from 2024. This is seen as a make-or-break year for Elliott, and I expect Virginia to be bowl eligible, but I have a feeling this is finally the game that Louisville blows out UVA. With that said, this is a potential trap game, as Louisville will be looking at a bye week and road matchup against Miami, however, I don’t think that will matter in this game.
Score Prediction: Louisville 37, Virginia 20
Game 6: Louisville vs. Miami (Friday)
Louisville will be looking for revenge for an embarrassing home loss last year to Miami. That loss wasn’t embarrassing because we lost to Miami, who was top 10 in the country at the time, but the way in which UofL lost. The defense was absolutely abysmal, even if it was against the #1 offense in the country. If the defense even showed up in the slightest, Louisville probably walks away with a victory.
Miami replaced #1 overall pick in the NFL Draft Cam Ward, with Georgia transfer Carson Beck. Beck has an extremely high talent level, but his career at UGA was plagued with injuries, untimely turnovers, and inconsistent play. He comes to Miami to play under Mario Cristobal and Offensive Coordinator Shannon Dawson. I expect him to play much better this year than he did in 2024, but if Louisville can make him uncomfortable, they’ll have a strong chance to win this game.
Miami’s defense was just about as bad as Louisville’s last season, giving up over 25 points per game. Because of that, they brought in a new Defensive Coordinator from Minnesota in Corey Hetherman. The hope for the U is that the team’s offensive production remains relatively the same, while the defense can become top 25 in the country.
If Louisville comes into this game ranked at 5-0, then the Miami crowd will definitely be a factor–especially for a Friday night game. But, if Louisville can slow the game down with the running backs and keep Carson Beck guessing, then they will win this game. However, I think Beck has the ability to pick apart UofL’s defense, and the defensive line talent that the Canes have will likely put Louisville in more passing situations than Jeff Brohm would like. Because of that, I like Miami to win in a game with far fewer points scored than last year’s matchup.
Score Prediction: Miami 31, Louisville 24
Game 7: Boston College vs. Louisville
Last year, Boston College had Louisville on the brink at home, starting the game up 20-0; however, after quarterback Thomas Castellanos faced an ankle injury while remaining in the game, UofL was able to completely stifle BC’s run-heavy offense to come all the way back and win 31-27.
Although BC brought in several transfers that Bill O’Brien feels can make a major positive impact this season, the roster turnover will make it tough for the Eagles to reach 7+ wins again when taking into account their schedule (at Michigan State, at Pitt, Clemson, at Louisville, Notre Dame, SMU, Georgia Tech, and at Syracuse). I think BC can make this a close game for a while, but they won’t be able to hang with UofL for a full 60 minutes.
Score Prediction: Louisville 37, Boston College 17
Game 8: Louisville vs. Virginia Tech
This game is one that I’ve gone back-and-forth on the entire summer. To me, it’s the most important game in determining whether or not Louisville will be a college football playoff team. With that said, let’s get one thing straight: Virginia Tech under Brent Pry is not a good program. Throughout his tenure, they’ve been overhyped with little to show for it, and it’s not for a lack of talent.
Va Tech brings back quarterback Kyron Drones, but lost stud running back Bhayshul Tuten and defensive lineman Aeneas (Fub) Peebles to the NFL. Furthermore, VT had an absolute coaching overhaul this offseason, bringing in a new set of coordinators, offensive line coach, and even a strength coach. In terms of the roster, they brought in a massive transfer class headlined by Bowling Green running back Terion Stewart.
Tech has a relatively easy schedule, but its coaching staff changes, reliance on the transfers, and Brent Pry’s inability to do his job well makes me think this will be his last chance at bringing the Hokies back–which I believe will fail. However, as much as I think Pry isn’t a good coach, that doesn’t matter for one game. Hell, Ron Cooper even beat Nick Saban head-to-head back in the day.
Virginia Tech is an extremely tough place to play, even with their lack of success. If this is a night game against a ranked Louisville team, it’s ironically the best case scenario for the Cards. If it’s a noon game without much juice from the VT crowd and sideline, that would give Tech the best chance to win (think Pitt in 2023; Stanford and Virginia in 2024). Although Jeff Brohm is a great coach, it’s well-documented that his teams don’t perform well when the lights are dim. Virginia Tech can be dangerous if you allow them to be. With all of that said, I do think the maturity of this roster will allow the Cards to come out victorious in a slugfest in Blacksburg.
My first instinct and draft of this article had Louisville losing 30-27. Let’s hope my instincts are wrong.
Score Prediction: Louisville 20, Virginia Tech 17
Game 9: California (Berkeley) vs. Louisville
I feel like this outcome is pretty cut-and-dry, but the outlook for Cal’s 2025 season is extremely bleak, in my opinion. The Bears experienced major coaching staff and roster overhaul, having to replace several position coaches and bring in former Auburn Head Coach Bryan Harsin at OC. They even hired Ron Rivera as the program’s GM, which could pay off in the long-term, but definitely didn’t this offseason, as Cal lost quarterback Fernando Mendoza to Indiana, running back Jaydin Ott to Oklahoma, along with many other key contributors on both sides of the ball.
Cal was picked to finish 15th in the ACC by the media, which I agree with. I feel as if Cal can carve a role as a solid program in the conference in the future, but that won’t be in the Cards this year, especially during the Bears’ matchup with Louisville. I expect UofL to dominate this game at home with its sights set on Clemson under the Friday night lights.
Score Prediction: Louisville 45, California 17
Game 10: Clemson vs. Louisville (Friday)
If my record prediction is correct at this point, I’d argue that this is the biggest game in Louisville football history. Sitting at 8-1 and likely in or near the top 10 teams in the country, the Cards would host the Clemson Tigers, the preseason ACC favorite and likely top 5 team in the land. A win this night would put UofL on track to make the college football playoff, a loss knocks them out of the ACC title race and relegates them to a solid but not program changing bowl game.
If this scenario comes to fruition, no previous regular season or postseason game is on the level of this game. Victories in the Fiesta Bowl against Alabama, the Orange Bowl against Wake Forest, the Sugar Bowl against Florida–none of them had greater stakes. For nearly all of UofL’s football history, it’s been the underdog. A win this night would finally put them on pace to be the big dog in the ACC (thanks, Vince).
Last year, Louisville simply kicked Clemson’s ass in Death Valley. It was one of the most satisfying wins in my Louisville fandom, as one of the whiniest and fakest fan bases and programs in all of sports got blasted at home by a 5-3 team who would go on to lose to Stanford. Because of that, the Tigers will be out for blood.
Clemson has, like most of its time during Dabo Swinney’s tenure, maintained most of its core roster and coaching staff, the lone exception coming in the form of the underrated hire of Tom Allen, former head coach at Indiana, as the school’s new defensive coordinator. It’s easy to see why this move, along with retaining offensive coordinator Garrett Riley (brother of Lincoln) and bringing back a majority of the key pieces from last year’s ACC championship roster, resulted in Clemson being a top 5 team in the preseason and trendy national championship pick.
In my opinion, Clemson has all of the makings to be a championship team in all aspects except for one: the quarterback position. Now, let’s discuss this a bit more: is Cade Klubnik a good quarterback? Yes. Is he capable of leading Clemson to a national championship? Probably. My only issue with Klubnik is that he’s a bit too much of a system quarterback in this Riley offense. He’s tough as nails and will put his body on the line to help his team win a game, but I just don’t think his intangibles match his tangible skills well enough to produce a third championship for Dabo Swinney. With that said, I do think that Clemson will be a playoff team, but will not steamroll the ACC as many in the national media believe.
Can Louisville, in front of a likely sellout crowd under the lights, finally meet the moment and take the next step as a program that fans have been waiting on since Howard Schnellenberger’s collision course speech? Yes.
Score Prediction: Louisville 27, Clemson 24
Game 11: Louisville vs. SMU
Besides Virginia Tech, this was the toughest game for me to decide. Kevin Jennings and SMU had their way with Louisville’s defense last season. This was the peak of incompetency by Ron English and his players. SMU only scored 34 points last season against the Cards, but it felt like 70. Every time Louisville had to have a stop, they just couldn’t come through.
This year, SMU retains a solid amount of their roster and maintains coaching staff continuity; however, their roster feels a bit hollow compared to last season. Their best offensive playmakers outside of Jennings have moved on besides RJ Maryland, but the tight end was injured for the latter half of last year. I think SMU will continue to be successful, but their lack of offensive punch relative to 2024 will hold them back, as the defense still won’t be up to the level that a playoff team needs to be. This time around, UofL will bank on Isaac Brown and Duke Watson to carry them back to Louisville, and it’ll happen.
Score Prediction: Louisville 31, SMU 27
Game 12: Kentucky vs. Louisville
I hate the Kentucky Wildcats, but even an unbiased person can see the writing on the wall: Mark Stoops is a dead man walking at UK. No matter how much kool-aid fans try to drink this offseason or how many times Stoops tries to hype up his roster, he’s finished. The schedule is too tough, the talent on the roster is a hollow shell of the peak years under Stoops, and the quarterback play under Zach Calzada will be abysmal (I say put Cutter in the dayum game).
Kentucky will come into this game hyped up to play their rival, but that will subside shortly after kickoff. After being beaten down by a brutal SEC schedule, the Cats will lay down for a beating one last time. Go Cards.
Score Prediction: Louisville 41, Kentucky 10
Final Record: 11-1
Record Floor: 8-4
Record Ceiling: 11-1
You may be confused why my predicted record and Louisville’s ceiling are the same. In my opinion, I can’t in my right mind say a Jeff Brohm-led team can have an undefeated season until I see it with my own eyes. I love him as a head coach and am ecstatic that he’s leading the program, but he has flaws as a coach, and sometimes they’re glaring. Until he finally can fix the issues of his teams that he’s taken accountability for on a multitude of occasions, it’s just all talk.
Louisville will be the beneficiary of a schedule tuned toward its success. Although UofL has to play three of the best teams in the conference, it has the ability to win all of those games. The bad luck of all of those one score losses last season will flip. The defense, which I’m still skeptical of, will be good enough to be highly successful. The offense, like last season, will not be held at bay for an entire game–there’s simply too many playmakers for that to be the case. As long as Louisville’s defense can stay within the 45 units in the country, it can make the college football playoff. If not, they’ll have another disappointing season, and Ron English will likely be fired.
August 30th is only 16 days away. Go Cards.