Louisville has a Louisville Problem

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Louisville has to stop losing the same way. I feel like a broken record by writing this, as it’s all I’ve talked about recently on the radio and Reel Spiel Podcast, but it’s my main takeaway from UofL's recent game against Virginia, as this has become an alarming trend during Jeff Brohm’s tenure at Louisville. Let’s breakdown what I’m talking about:

2023 Season Losses:

Pittsburgh: Louisville had 15 more first downs, almost 150 more yards of offense, and three less penalties, but lost the game by 17 as a result of a red zone fumble, a pick-six, and another interception–all by Jack Plummer. It was a disastrous performance in every respect.

Kentucky: Another game in which Louisville gave away, UofL had 7 more first downs, ~115 more yards of offense, double the amount of rushing yards, and an interception forced–yet the Cards lost thanks to a kick return touchdown and two fourth-quarter fumbles by Jawhar Jordan and Jack Plummer, respectively. The interception by Plummer was a hail mary at the end of the game, so he deserved no blame for that. 

Florida State: This was just a horrendous performance by the Louisville offense, as it only gained 188 yards of offense and had an interception thrown by Plummer, who went 14/36 passing for the game. Since Louisville was facing Brock Glenn, who amassed a pathetic 55 passing yards, this should be considered another performance in which Louisville didn’t adequately show up.

USC: In this game, the defense was mainly to blame, as it allowed six passing touchdowns by Miller Moss, but the offense still had 150 more rushing yards than USC and lost the turnover battle. Simply put, it was a horrible end to the inaugural season of the Jeff Brohm era.

2023 One Score Game Record: 5-1 (Wins: Georgia Tech, Indiana, NC State, Virginia, Miami; Loss: Kentucky)

2024 Season Losses:

Notre Dame: Louisville, on the road in South Bend, had 8 more first downs than the Irish, 14 more rushing yards and 101 more passing yards, yet 2 fumbles (one by the punter, the other coming off of a 50-yard rush by Tyler Shough), and a flukey interception off of a Ja’Corey Brooks drop, doomed the Cards on the road in a close game against the national runners-up.

SMU: This game was a shootout in which Louisville’s defense just didn’t show up–surrendering nearly 500 yards. But what doomed UofL was a turnover on downs, a pick by Shough, and an overturned fumble forced by the defense, which led to the game-winning touchdown for SMU. This one wasn’t as egregious as the rest, but still an example of a game in which Louisville should have won, but didn’t play close enough to its standards relative to talent on the roster. 

Miami: This is one of the only games in the Brohm era in which Louisville simply got beat by a better team. The defense gave up 52 points against the best offense in the country, but Louisville still scored 45 points at home and lost–which  shouldn’t ever happen–no matter the opponent. Beyond that, an Isaac Brown fumble that led to a scoop-and-score, along with a missed blatant hold on Ashton Gillotte that subsequently gave a touchdown to the Canes, were the nails in the coffin. 

Stanford: This game is arguably the worst loss in the Jeff Brohm era. I still contend that Pittsburgh in 2023 was worse given the circumstances of Louisville’s playoff positioning, but this was definitely more deflating for the fanbase. 

Louisville was down by 10 in this game, but ended up turning it on en route to a 15-point second half lead, which it would choke in the most brutal way imaginable–capped off by a horrible unsportsmanlike conduct penalty against Tayon Holloway (not the worst thing that happened to him that weekend), which led to a game-winning field goal for Stanford. Just an inexcusable loss.

2024 One Score Game Record: 3-4 (Wins: Virginia, Boston College, Washington; Losses: Notre Dame, SMU, Miami, Stanford)

2025 vs. Virginia:

This is one of the best examples of a game that Louisville should have won, but arguably refused to take for themselves. Louisville had 12 more first downs than Virginia (the #3 offense in America coming into the game in yards and points), 150 more yards of offense, and two less penalties than the Hoos. 

However, as has happened too many times, Louisville lost the game on their own accord. An awful 4th down call by Jeff Brohm led to a scoop-and-score by UVA after Louisville’s defense got an opening drive stop. Even worse, one of the dumbest interceptions in history was thrown by Miller Moss, which led to a gift-wrapped touchdown for Virginia. 

Besides the turnovers, Louisville couldn’t get the ground game moving, gave up 5 sacks to cap off a horrible day by the offensive line, and even more inexplicable decisions by Miller Moss that sealed Louisville’s fate. That’s even with a career day by Chris Bell, who was unguardable on the outside for UofL. It was a game that Louisville couldn’t afford to lose if it wanted to contend for an ACC Championship, but that goal is now on life support.

Total One-Score Game Record in the Jeff Brohm Era: 10-6. Think about that for a second, exactly half of Louisville’s games under Jeff Brohm have been decided by one possession. That’s unsustainable for a program that is trying to reach a new level. It allows for variance and luck–good or bad–to determine your season. If Jeff Brohm and his staff are serious about making Louisville a consistent contender in the ACC, they need to have their team prepared to play every single game, no matter who they’re lining up against.

Beyond the losses, think about Louisville’s extremely close wins under Brohm, in which it had either had to come back from down multiple scores or almost choked a lead. In 2023 alone, UofL had a 15-point comeback against Georgia Tech, a 10-point comeback against NC State, a 10-point comeback against Miami, and almost lost a 21-0 lead against 3-9 Indiana, a 14 point lead against a 3-9 Virginia team at home, and a 10-point lead (twice) against a 7-5 Kentucky team at home.

In 2024, Louisville had a 20-point comeback at Boston College, almost lost a 10-point lead against Georgia Tech at home, a 10-point lead at a 5-7 Virginia team, had a 10-point comeback and 15-point choke job at a 3-9 Stanford team, and almost gave away a 14-point lead against Washington with 4 minutes left to play in the Sun Bowl.

In 2025, Louisville already had to come back from down 8 in the second half against James Madison at home, down 17-0 against Pitt on the road, and down 10 against Virginia, a game it choked after finally gaining the lead in overtime. That’s only 5 games into the season, including two cupcake games.

With all of this in mind, I want to say that I am by no means calling for Jeff Brohm to be fired, or even to be put on the hot seat. He’s 23-9 at Louisville, has taken it to its first ACC Championship Game, started 3-0 for three straight seasons for the first time in program history, and has two top 10 wins in his first two seasons. Clemson was technically ranked 11th in the AP Poll, but I’m counting it.

The point is that while Louisville fans can be thankful that Jeff Brohm came home to coach his alma mater and has had marked success while doing so. However, the negative aspects of his tenure have prevented UofL from being anything more than it already is–a relatively good program with little national relevance. The frustration from the fanbase is valid. Louisville losing the same way is frustrating enough, but losing the same way to teams that aren’t as good as it will eventually become a fireable offense, unless the trend is bucked. Let’s hope Louisville can finish this season positively and overcome its consistent shortcomings.