Five Bold Predictions for Louisville Football in 2025

---

The Louisville Cardinals open up their season against the Eastern Kentucky Colonels in a mere 10 days. Cards fans are optimistic that Year 3 of the Jeff Brohm era will see UofL make its first College Football Playoff appearance. However, the team is unranked in the preseason poll, faces plenty of questions on the defensive side of the ball, and is relying upon yet another plug-and-play transfer portal quarterback to lead the team. With the college football season kicking off this Saturday in Week 0, headlined by Kansas State vs. Iowa State in Dublin, Ireland, it’s time to get into five bold predictions I have for UofL this upcoming season. 

1. Louisville will win all of its home games:

Louisville plays 8 home games this year, with arguably its only “tough” game being Clemson on a Friday night in November. Besides the two cupcake games against Eastern Kentucky and Bowling Green, the Cards will play James Madison (tougher than most think), Virginia, Boston College, California, and Kentucky. 

The Cards have been prone to having at least one inexplicably bad loss a season under Jeff Brohm, but if it happens this year, it won’t be at home. So, if UofL wins all 8 of its home games this campaign, it already matches its regular season win total from last season. In order to become a College Football Playoff team, Louisville will need to beat at least 3 out of 4 of Pittsburgh, Miami, Virginia Tech, and SMU. With the schedule Louisville has and the blatant disrespect the ACC already receives, nothing below an 11-1 regular season will put them in the playoff, unless they can make the conference championship at 10-2 and win the game.

2. Louisville will win 10+ games with a defense outside the top 40 in the country:

If you’ve heard my (often wrong) takes on the radio, you know the questions I have with Louisville’s defense heading into this season. The defensive line is facing a massive overhaul with the exit of players like Ashton Gilotte, Jared Dawson, Tramel Logan, Thor Griffith, etc. Their replacements seem to be solid on the surface, but the only truly proven player in the trenches is Clev Lubin out of Coastal Carolina. However, even he was pushed in the preseason by returning edge, AJ Green. I’m choosing to see this as a positive development, but we won’t know until we know.

Besides Lubin, Jeff Brohm and co. added players like Wesley Bailey and Jerry Lowry, and retained Jordan Guerad, Rene Konga, and Denzel Lowry. There are many players with the ability to be highly productive, but, as of now, they’re mostly just a bunch of guys. To be a true national championship contender, Louisville will need players like Lubin on the edge and Guerad in the middle to become extremely disruptive in order to see the fruits of Defensive Coordinator Ron English’s scheme.

The secondary is a mixed bag, with some returning pieces but mainly consists of transfer portal additions. The carryover players in this group from last year are D’Angelo Hutchinson, Blake Ruffin, Deah McCullough, Raemon Mosby, and Tayon Holloway–a solid amount of retained talent that can make an impact. However, the only entrenched starter out of the returners is Hutchinson, meaning the coaching staff had to bring in a ton of secondary help out of the portal, which they did.

The transfers will mostly affect the cornerback room, but the staff did bring safety help in JoJo Evans (FIU), who will likely start alongside Hutchinson, and likely reserve Corey Gordon (Baylor) to add more proven depth. Regarding the corners, the two starters will likely be transfers in Rodney Johnson (Southern) and Jabari Mack (Jacksonville State). You’ll likely see Tayon Holloway as the nickel corner, unless he can regain a starting spot after being reinstated onto the roster. Besides him, expect guys like Justin Agu (Louisiana), true sophomore Rae’Mon Mosby, and true freshman Antonio Harris from Male High School to make some noise as the season goes on.

You may be thinking this secondary is riddled with transfers from non-power programs, and you’d be right. However, the one thing I’ll say to ease your worries is to look at guys like Quincy Riley and Kei’Trel Clark, who transferred to Louisville from Middle Tennessee State and Liberty, respectively. Obviously, you’d be more comfortable having blue chip talent on the roster, but, if you have effective scouting, there are more than enough diamonds in the rough that you can recruit to transfer up. For that reason, I expect the veterans like Rodney Johnson and Jabari Mack to have an overwhelmingly positive impact on this year’s team.

To finish this section on a positive note, the linebacking corps is actually what I’m most excited for with this defense. It has the most returning production while also adding in some portal talent to bolster the room. Familiar names like TJ Quinn, Stanquan Clark, and Antonio Watts make you feel comfortable with the middle of third of this Louisville defense. On top of the returning starters, UofL retained former 5 star recruit TJ Capers, who seems to be in-line for a breakout season.

When taking into account transfers Kalib Perry (Tennessee) and Nigel Williams (New Mexico), there’s dependable depth to back up the stars in this position group. Perry should be a solid glue guy when he does earn snaps, while Williams may play a mix of linebacker and defensive back depending on the package. 

The only issues with this group are pass defense and injuries. TJ Quinn is a thumper in the middle, but he has issues playing in space against quicker receivers. If our depth is what it should be, there’s a chance that TJ Capers becomes the starting middle linebacker by season’s end, thanks to his superior agility and coverage skills relative to Quinn. Regarding injuries, Stanquan Clark is the one to monitor. Clark experienced a slight injury bug last season, and is getting over a nagging injury in fall camp, meaning he’ll be a bit behind his counterparts. In order to ensure that my prediction about UofL’s defense is wrong, he needs to be on the field as often as possible, which leads right into my next bold prediction.

3. Stanquan Clark will be a First-Team All ACC performer:

Now, you may be thinking my logic here is a bit counterintuitive, as I said that if Louisville wants to have a top 40 defense, which I don’t think will happen, that Clark needs to be on the field as frequently as possible, yet I’m predicting that he will be named a First-Team All ACC performer. I can understand why you see that as a contradiction, but I don’t think Clark alone will be the determining factor in whether or not UofL has a good defense next season. With that said, he is a major piece to the puzzle.

Last season, as a true sophomore and dealing with injuries, Clark tallied 76 tackles, half a sack, 2 forced fumbles, 2 interceptions, and 7.5 tackles for loss. He essentially tripled his statistical output from his freshman year, and is now setting himself up to be the guy on this Louisville defense. I don’t expect him to lead the team in tackles–TJ Quinn should secure that accomplishment for a third year in a row. However, I expect Clark to be productive enough that he should be taken within the first two days of the 2026 NFL Draft. Much of Louisville’s potential success, whether it’s on defense or for the team’s overall aspirations, will hinge on Clark to be a high-level performer, and I think he will.

4. Louisville will lead the ACC in total rushing yards

This is the bold prediction that I’m most confident will happen. Last season, Louisville technically finished 4th in the ACC in overall rushing yards because of Clemson playing an extra game, but, realistically, UofL finished 3rd. The Cards averaged 185.2 rushing yards per game, right behind Miami and Georgia Tech, sitting at 188.9 and 187, respectively. 

For the first third-to-half of the 2024 season, Louisville was relying on running backs like Donald Chaney and Maurice Turner (before his injury) instead of Isaac Brown and Duke Watson. Once they came into the fold as the team’s bell cow running backs, the offense churned yards on the ground and became much more efficient as an entire unit. Below are the rushing-only stats for the main running backs last season for Louisville

Don Chaney: 50 carries, 178 yards, 3.3 YPC, 3 touchdowns

Maurice Turner: 27 carries, 136 yards, 5 YPC, 2 touchdowns

Keyjuan Brown: 47 carries, 243 yards, 5.2 YPC, 3 touchdowns

Isaac Brown: 165 carries, 1,173 yards, 7.1 YPC, 11 touchdowns

Duke Watson: 67 carries, 598 yards, 8.9 YPC, 7 touchdowns

Average stats for first three running backs: 41.3 carries, 185.6 yards, 4.5 YPC, 2.6 touchdowns

Average stats for Isaac Brown and Duke Watson: 116 carries, 885.5 yards, 8 YPC, 9 touchdowns

While this isn’t an exact science, the output for the running backs last season that were true Freshman compared to a mostly veteran group is astronomically different. If you recall from last year, Don Chaney was just unfortunately not a very good running back, Mo Turner had some pop but couldn’t stay on the field, and Keyjuan Brown was best suited to be a blocking or short yardage back rather than a workhorse.

The point is, once Louisville implemented Isaac Brown and Duke Watson as the running back tandem in its offense, the efficiency and capability of the entire unit reached a higher floor and ceiling. Now, with both running backs in the program for another season, gaining knowledge, muscle, and maturity, they’re poised to be one of, if not the best, running back duo in the country. 

All of this is not to discount Keyjuan Brown, who has shown some promise in his first two seasons, and has had a great offseason, but he simply doesn’t have anywhere near the talent as the two rising sophomores. Keyjuan will be critical in certain moments this season, and I credit the coaching staff for retaining him, but he doesn’t have the ability to carry Louisville (no pun intended) to a College Football Playoff appearance like Isaac Brown and/or Duke Watson.

5. Miller Moss will throw for more touchdowns this season than Jack Plummer and Tyler Shough did in 2023 and 2024, respectively

Miller Moss is coming into his first and final year at UofL off a relatively mediocre 2024 season. He threw for over 2,500 yards, 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions on a 64% completion percentage. Beyond that, he was benched to finish last season at USC. With that said, he lacked a competent offensive line and running game, but did have above average receiving talent, headlined by Zacharia Branch, who transferred to Georgia. This season, he should benefit from having a relatively equal receiving corps, an immensely better running back group, and a solid offensive line.

In 2023, Jack Plummer held back Louisville from a College Football Playoff appearance (just my opinion). He threw for 3,200 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions on a 65% completion percentage. He also had very untimely fumbles in several games, namely Pittsburgh and Kentucky. That season, Louisville had an extremely talented running back group in Jawhar Jordan and Isaac Guerendo, along with a good enough offensive line. However, his inability to throw deep balls, be on time with his passes, anticipate throws and defenses, and propensity to turn the ball over, made his 2023 campaign mediocre.

Last season, Tyler Shough was much more efficient and effective than Plummer. He threw for 3,200 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions on a 63% completion percentage. He wasn’t perfect, as he made some awkward or downright reckless plays (think of the Stanford game), coupled with a few bad turnovers, but he was overall much better than Jack Plummer. Shough could consistently hit on deep passes, threw with anticipation, and had quality pocket awareness. Overall, Shough was a good quarterback in a Jeff Brohm offense–he made the right throws at the proper time, but he didn’t throw as much as you would expect, mainly because he took what the defense gave him while relying on his incredible run game.

This upcoming season, for Miller Moss to be successful (and potentially drafted), he has to do the exact same thing as Shough, but better. I don’t expect Moss to throw for 4,000 yards or anything, as Louisville will run more than it throws, but I expect him to have a higher completion percentage and take advantage of his run game to a greater extent than Shough did. Expect UofL to try to capitalize on heavy defensive boxes with play action to keep Moss comfortable. Brohm will put him in position to succeed, he just has to make the throws that are available.

Predicted Miller Moss stats: 3,300 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, 8 interceptions on a 65.5% completion percentage.